Strategic Bearing

Clarity of direction in aviation, strategy, and capital.

A true bearing tells you where you actually stand, not where you meant to go. 97 pieces on aviation, strategy and capital, across four lenses: Flightpath, Boardroom, Capital and Wisdom.

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CIAL: The Story of an Airport That Changed the Rules (Repost - 2024)How an entrepreneurial bureaucrat, an unconventional financing model and an inclusive approach to development created India’s first greenfield airport under the public-private partnership model.Strategic Bearing · Newsletter

Testing times!In Jan 2026, Capital A sold its aviation business to AirAsia X, bringing the airlines under one platform. In July, AirAsia X…

Saudi carriers supplied just 10% of Dammam’s international seat capacity in 2025Saudi carriers supplied just 10% of Dammam’s international seat capacity in 2025. That is the gap the Kingdom’s newest airline…

India's air services agreements need a proactive renewal cycleIndia's air services agreements need a proactive renewal cycle. When demand moves faster than bilateral policy, connectivity…

Who Pays. How Much. When. India’s Airport Tariff Model Is Evolving.Three recent AERA decisions at Delhi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad point to three distinct shifts in tariff design: Incidence - who…

The crack spread has gone from a quarter of the jet fuel price to nearly halfThe crack spread has gone from a quarter of the jet fuel price to nearly half. Should airlines explore strategic exposure to…

Sharing two recent flynas announcements that are personal to me.The first: 3 weekly Riyadh-Kochi flights from today (Sept 2). I built the business case for Kochi when I joined flynas in 2022…

Who Pays. How Much. When. India’s Airport Tariff Model Is Evolving.Three recent AERA decisions at Delhi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad point to three distinct shifts in tariff design: Incidence - who…

KSA fleet: Airbus production is now a potential national capacity constraintKSA fleet | Airbus production capacity is now a potential national aviation capacity constraint for Saudi Arabia - that may be…

Why aren't aviation leaders more unsettled by these numbersWhy aren't aviation leaders more unsettled by these numbers? And why aren't investors more selective about where their capital…

#smalljoysIt's good to see a new service to Kochi after many years (discounting IX's inconsistent presence). It's a grossly underserved…

KSA fleet | The numbers point somewhere the headlines don't.Riyadh Air commands the attention, and rightly so. Every aircraft delivery and every route announcement attracts global…

Beyond politics: India’s economic playbook during the Gulf conflictBeyond politics - A flavour of India's economic playbook during the Gulf Conflict. In posts since the war began, we discussed…

Jet fuel retreats and Hormuz reopens: the end of a 16-week fuel shockJet fuel prices are retreating, airspace is reopening, and the Strait of Hormuz is (hopefully) returning to normal. The…

This chart tells the central story of airline economics since 2015This chart tells the central story of airline economics since 2015: an industry that generates real profit in dollar terms but…

How a Strait “CRACKED” Airline FinancesIn December 2025, the industry was heading into what looked like a record year. $41bn in profits. A 3.9% margin. Jet fuel at…

UPDATE: 10 weeks of war.Since my last post, the situation has moved on three fronts: Capacity continues to be destroyed at scale: 13,000 flights and 2…

April '26 KSA fleet update: It's raining planes in Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦✈️KSA's commercial fleet is set to triple, from ~260 aircraft today to over 850. With 593 aircraft on order, Saudi carriers are…

The case for state supportThe case for state support. 3.9%. That was IATA’s forecast net margin for the global airline industry in 2026 - $41 billion on…

A 2016 piece from the Reuters desk, at the trough of the last oil cycleI wrote this piece in 2016, during my time at Reuters, at the trough of the last oil cycle (ex-COVID). Just two years earlier…

DIPIP Part 1: unlocking airport capacity by rethinking domestic–international segregationDIPIP Series | Part 1 - Unlocking Airport Capacity by Rethinking Domestic - International Segregation Airports around the world…

Airlines cannot “buy growth” at will (Repost with addl. insights)Aircraft Delivery Delays: Stalling Growth, Sustainability and Efficiency. The aircraft delivery challenge has evolved from a…

Hart-Smith’s Warning and Boeing’s Full-Circle CorrectionAs aircraft OEMs continue to grapple with fragile supply chains, delivery delays, and eroded quality, it is worth revisiting a…

Airlines cannot “buy growth” at willAircraft Delivery Delays: Stalling Growth, Sustainability and Efficiency. The aircraft delivery challenge has evolved from a…

The Kingdom’s dual-hub strategy and Riyadh’s long-haul realityThe Kingdom’s dual-hub strategy, envisaged under NAS is now becoming a reality as Riyadh Air inches closer to its "true"…

Capital A’s Strategic ResetCapital A’s Strategic Reset - Two focused verticals - A unified low-cost aviation group and A travel & digital group. At the…

On stage at the Dubai Airshow 2025: airports of tomorrowIncredibly grateful for the opportunity to be on stage at the Dubai Airshow last week, across two conversations that touched…

AirAsia’s restructuring enters its final lap, and its Middle East push gains paceAirAsia’s restructuring is in it's final lap, and its Middle East push is gaining pace. It was a pleasure reconnecting with…

🔁 6E's forex woes highlighted in this post from FebREPOST 🔁 6E's forex woes highlighted in this post from Feb. Relevant in light of Q2FY26 results 💵 Forex Woes in Indian Aviation…

Oct-25 UPDATE - Wizz Air’s Saudi PlayOct-25 UPDATE - Wizz Air’s Saudi Play: A Bold Entry, A Hard Lesson, and a Second Chance In April, I wrote about how Wizz may…

Decoding Riyadh Air’s inaugural networkDecoding Riyadh Air’s inaugural network - I’ve been tracking their first aircraft, Jamila, since she touched down in RUH on Jan…

Saudi Arabia’s Rail Boom & A New Mobility Equation for the GCCBetween 2019 and 2024, despite COVID disruptions, intercity train ridership in the Kingdom grew 4×, reaching 11.6 million…

India’s International Traffic - FY25 vs FY24Here is the data. Share your analysis in the comments. Total growth: +7.1M pax (+10.6%) → 66.8M → 73.9M Indian carriers’ share…

Rail to Runway: challenging the narratives on India’s aviation growthChallenging some narratives on Indian aviation's growth trajectory in this edition of Rail to Runway – Tracking India’s…

Saudi Skies Are Airbus Skies - KSA fleet snapshot (Aug 2025)Total Fleet: 256 aircraft Airbus vs Boeing: 199 vs 57 (~78% Airbus market share) New-gen vs old-gen: 121 vs 135 (~47% new-gen)…

Ever heard of not-for-profit airports?Canada’s biggest airports, including Toronto Pearson, Vancouver and Montreal are not corporatised, not publicly listed, and not…

CIAL’s Playbook: Profit, Sustainability, Community - Lessons for Every Airport

Cochin International Airport - Substance over spectacleIn a world obsessed with the biggest and flashiest, my home airport, Cochin International (CIAL) offers a different model - one…

An injustice corrected: India–Kuwait bilaterals get their first revision in two decadesAn Injustice Corrected: India-Kuwait Bilaterals Get First Revision in Two Decades Those who have followed my work know this is…

From Monopoly to MomentumFrom Monopoly to Momentum: The Evolution of Saudi Arabia’s Airline Landscape For over 60 years, Saudia ruled Saudi skies…

#2 From Rail to Runway – Tracking India’s Aviation Ascent.Exhibit 1: A growing number of migrant workers from my home state, Kerala, are choosing to fly home to their towns in northern…

A new incisive series: From Rail to Runway – Tracking India’s Aviation AscentA new incisive series: From Rail to Runway – Tracking India’s Aviation Ascent - A deep dive into India’s inevitable aviation…

Before flynas: NasJet and the premium thread in the group’s DNAAt least some of you might be surprised to learn that Flynas wasn’t the first scheduled commercial airline venture under the…

Decoding the Flynas IPO (live now): Network StrategyFlynas operates a well-segmented network, focused on 5 clusters: >Domestic >GCC trunk routes >VFR and Labour Markets >Religious…

Decoding the Flynas IPO - Business Segments and Revenue CompositionFlynas is more than an LCC, it operates a multi-vertical aviation platform with three distinct business lines: Scheduled LCC…

Decoding the flynas IPO: what the prospectus revealsDecoding the Flynas IPO as it opens the door to a wealth of rich data on Saudi Arabia’s aviation landscape, far beyond what…

China’s Narrowbody PivotI flew the COMAC C919 a couple of weeks ago. Here’s what I saw - and why it matters. Whether or not the Boeing embargo holds…

April '25 Update: It’s raining planes in Saudi Arabia! 🇸🇦✈️It’s official - flyadeal has confirmed an order for 10 Airbus A330 neo widebody jets, with options for 10 more. Deliveries…

Wizz Air needs to rethink its Saudi playWizz Air needs to return to the drawing board to get its Saudi play right. One size doesn’t fit all, and the airline's Saudi…

Would you step on a scale before boarding your flight? ✈️🌍While working on a project at flynas, I figured how crucial accurate passenger weight data is for flight safety and operational…

Boeing’s Tariff NightmareThe Trump administration’s 5 tariffs - on steel, aluminium, and imports from Canada, Mexico, and China are hitting Boeing at…

5,000% returns on an airline stock?When we think of multibaggers, airlines rarely come to mind. However, Air Canada (AC.TO) defied the odds & transformed itself…

KKIA’s Legacy and the Dawn of a New Riyadh HubKKIA’s Legacy and the Dawn of a New Riyadh Hub - Upscaled images of Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport from 1983. KKIA…

Forex Woes in Indian Aviation – Is Enough Being Done to Hedge Risks?The Indian airline industry faces a silent profitability killer – foreign exchange losses. Even IndiGo, a well-run…

When Fleet Planning Goes for a Toss⚠️🛫 When Fleet Planning Goes for a Toss: How Boeing’s Delivery Delays Undermine Airline Strategy (Best viewed on📲) Fleet…

700 aircraft for 1.4 Bn people700 aircraft for 1.4 Bn people. India’s Aviation Growth is Just Getting Started! ✈️🇮🇳 🔹 Largest Population, Smallest Fleet…

Aircraft Delivery DelaysAircraft Delivery Delays: Stalling Growth, Sustainability, and Efficiency Ongoing delays in aircraft deliveries are stifling…

KKIA is the world’s most punctual airport: 86.65% on-time departures“Whilst it is easy to announce grand plans and new investments, Riyadh Airport is delivering excellence already.” Willy’s words…

JED–RUH: the world’s fastest-growing domestic route of 2024🇸🇦🇮🇳 JED-RUH (Jeddah-Riyadh) emerged as the world's fastest-growing domestic route this year with a 10% increase in seat…

The $4.8 billion Heathrow stake sale and PIF’s entry into airport infrastructureA deep dive into the $4.8 Billion Heathrow Stake Sale & PIF’s Grand Entry into global airport infrastructure. <AirportM&A> 🌎…

Aeropolitics should serve public welfare: closing the GCC–India bilaterals seriesAeropolitics should be driven by the principle of public welfare, ensuring aviation serves as a unifying force. But is it? I…

#FYI - All pax travelling to/from Saudi Arabia.The Kingdom is embracing a passenger-first approach with GACA's revised Passenger Rights Protection Regulations. Here’s a quick…

Saudi Arabia's aviation growth story deserves to be celebratedSaudi Arabia's aviation growth story deserves to be celebrated! The numbers are a testament to the Kingdom's ability to align…

Riyadh Airports at Matarat’s inaugural strategy summitRepresenting Riyadh Airports at Matarat's inaugural strategy summit was an incredible honour. The Hold Co and Op Cos came…

The Riyadh Metro opens: 176 km, six lines, and a link to KKIA🇸🇦 The need for a comprehensive public transit system in Riyadh, especially one connecting key nodes like King Khalid…

How the scales have tipped🇮🇳 How the scales have tipped - a snapshot of the shift in India’s international air traffic dynamics. The numbers tell a…

Riyadh's skies are callingRiyadh's skies are calling! 🇸🇦 #ExcitingNews | RX Initial Slot Allocation for Summer 2025 As the IATA Slot Conference (SC155)…

#smalljoysIt's good to see Thiruvananthapuram (TRV) back on Riyadh's (RUH) route map since September, after a gap of 5 years. With…

GCC. Unlocking the Massive Potential of India🇮🇳 GCC. Unlocking the Massive Potential of India - Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 Air Traffic. In the case of Saudi Arabia, despite having one…

9 seats for every incremental seat - would you buy that deal?"Revising the bilaterals is one thing but revising the bilaterals adversely is another." (Tim Clark-Emirates) Past "errors"…

Saudi Arabia’s first arrival duty-free shop opens at Riyadh’s KKIACheckout Saudi Arabia's 🇸🇦 first arrival duty-free shop at Riyadh's KKIA! It's a watershed moment for KSA’s travel retail…

It's raining planes in Saudi Arabia! 🇸🇦✈️Riyadh Air (RX) just announced an order for 60 A321neo aircraft at the FII summit in Riyadh. Reuters quoted Riyadh Air's CEO…

Review week - "GCC - India 🇮🇳 Bilateral Air Service AgreementsReview week - "GCC - India 🇮🇳 Bilateral Air Service Agreements: A Case for Equitable Revision" 🛫 When words and actions don't…

India–GCC trade: the Gulf is India’s largest regional trading partnerThe India-GCC trade relationship is a cornerstone of India's foreign trade. The GCC is India's largest regional trading…

Like manna from heaven: Gulf remittances and India’s aviation market“Like manna from heaven," The Economist famously described the remittances from the Gulf to India, particularly Kerala. India…

GCC–India bilateral air service agreements (series intro)“GCC-India Bilateral Air Service Agreements: A Case for Equitable Revision" This series will follow an approach of piecing…

India–GCC air connectivity: the gap between entitlements and capacitySome unsettling numbers that deserve serious attention regarding air connectivity between India and the Gulf Cooperation…

It's raining planes in Saudi Arabia! 🇸🇦✈️This edition of "Aviation in Saudi: Past, Present, and Future" provides an overview of KSA's fleet, and the timing couldn't be…

Global commercial aircraft delivery stats and demand outlook✈ Global commercial aircraft delivery stats and demand outlook - a precursor to KSA's Fleet Overview as the series "Aviation in…

Why it's important to have a Plan BWhy it's important to have a Plan B - unsolicited advice from a 12th pass - UPSC fail. ♠ The Union Public Service Commission…

Key insights from KSA's 2023 Air Transport Statistics1. Passenger traffic soared to 112 million, a 26% increase from 2022. Most airports showed significant traffic growth…

Saudi Arabia’s 2030 aviation and tourism targets, against 2023 actualsSaudi Arabia's aviation and tourism targets for 2030 are ambitious, but the Kingdom is making huge strides towards achieving…

Targets in the screen are closer than they appear"Saudi Arabia's Aviation and Tourism Targets for 2030 A quick snapshot of where the Kingdom stands today vis-à-vis where it…

Leaving flynas: reflections on an incredible journeyAs my time with Flynas comes to an end, I reflect on the incredible strides the team made in the last two years. ‣Doubled the…

A ready reckoner on commercial aviation in Saudi ArabiaA ready reckoner on commercial aviation in Saudi Arabia and a recap of the series in this edition of “Aviation in Saudi: Past…

Saudia’s six decades as a monopoly, and the carriers that ended itAs Saudi Arabia opens up to the world, aviation is firmly in the spotlight as one of the most powerful enablers of Vision 2030…

Corporatising Saudi Arabia’s airports: from state operator to regulatorTraditionally, airports worldwide, including Saudi Arabia, have been owned and operated by governments. "Airports that are…

It's no secret that Saudi Arabia's aviation sector is witnessing rapid growthIt's no secret that Saudi Arabia's aviation sector is witnessing rapid growth. KSA's Vision 2030 has sparked a socioeconomic…

Did you know Saudia is the GCC’s first flag carrier?Did you know Saudia is GCC's first flag carrier? SV's brand refresh calls for a rejig in the order of topics being discussed in…

Ibn Saud. USS Quincy. FDR. DC3. Saudia. The common threadIbn Saud. USS Quincy. FDR. DC3. Saudia. The common thread - the birth of aviation in the Kingdom. The missing element? The…

Saudi Arabia has a glitzy future in aviation — and an incredible pastSaudi Arabia has a glitzy future in aviation but it also had an incredible past. Join me in this series "Aviation in Saudi…

Would you fancy flying non-stop to Macau? For folks in unserved marketsWould you fancy flying non-stop to Macau? For folks in unserved markets - this could soon be a reality. Macau's flag carrier…

SriLankan Airlines: a sneak peek at its vital traffic flowsHere is a sneak peek into the vital traffic flows for Sri Lankan Airlines and the Emerald Isle's key source markets for…

Jumbocide to Resurrection - The fall and rise of the A380Here is a quick snapshot of what is left of the A380 fleet. 251 aircraft were delivered to 15 operators (14 + Hi Fly) during…

To become an aviation hub, India needs widebodiesTo translate all the zealous talk about creating an aviation hub in India and launching more long haul flights - into action…

VJ Kurian IAS: the visionary who steered Cochin airport for 19 yearsA piece on VJ Kurian IAS, the visionary who steered the Cochin International Airport for 19 years, right from it's inception…

The CIAL model and the visionary behind it - VJ Kurian IAS

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