India's air services agreements need a proactive renewal cycle

India's air services agreements need a proactive renewal cycle. When demand moves faster than bilateral policy, connectivity becomes the constraint.

Last week, I had the chance to raise this at an Embassy of India in Riyadh event with Shri Kirti Vardhan Singh, Hon'ble Minister of State for External Affairs, Govt. of India, an issue I've been making the case for some time.

Last year I published the analysis below. It compared bilateral seat entitlements across the six GCC states against the size of the Indian community in each, adjusted for sixth-freedom traffic. The result was a simple metric: seats per NRI.

Kuwait came out near the bottom at 1.6, on an entitlement that had not moved since 2006.

In 2025, that changed. India and Kuwait signed a revision lifting weekly capacity from 12,000 to 18,000 seats each way. Annual entitlement went from 2.5 million seats to 3.7 million (both directions, both sides).

It was the first increase in nineteen years. That is the point. The revision was right, but it arrived too late, long after the constraint had shaped fares, routings and choice for the community it serves.

India's UAE entitlements sit across four separate points: Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah. The largest, Dubai, has been frozen at 66,504 seats per week each way since February 2014, and is now effectively fully utilised on both sides. It has not moved in twelve years.

Meanwhile, MEA's latest figures put the Indian community in the UAE at 4.3 million, up from 3.4 million at the previous count. So the capacity available per person has fallen even as the entitlement has remained unchanged.

The Ministry of Civil Aviation owns the negotiation. But MEA's reach across the Gulf can keep these questions moving through the system, and raise them where aviation sits within a broader bilateral relationship.

My thanks to the Embassy of India, Riyadh, and the new Ambassador to the Kingdom, Mr. Vipul, for the forum and the opportunity to engage.

For the millions of Indians living across the Gulf, this is more than aviation policy. It's the infrastructure that connects them home.

(This write-up is for educational/informational purposes only. Views are my own)

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