A 2016 piece from the Reuters desk, at the trough of the last oil cycle

I wrote this piece in 2016, during my time at Reuters, at the trough of the last oil cycle (ex-COVID).

Just two years earlier, oil above $100 was eroding airline profitability and keeping returns below the cost of capital. By 2016, the narrative had flipped, sanctions on Iran were lifted by the Obama-led US administration, additional barrels flooded an oversupplied market, and prices slipped to historic lows.

For airlines, it was one of the few periods in recent history where returns moved closer to the hurdle rate.

Today, the cycle has turned again. With Iran once more at the centre of the narrative and oil prices surging.

With a ceasefire now announced, one hopes for a sustained deescalation, because the trajectory from here will matter as much as the shock itself.