https://strategicbearing.in/strategic-bearing.html Clarity of direction in aviation, strategy and capital. Written by Kevin Jose across four lenses: Flightpath, Boardroom, Capital and Wisdom. en Kevin Jose Fri, 25 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0530 https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-testing-times/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-testing-times/ Fri, 25 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Boardroom In Jan 2026, Capital A sold its aviation business to AirAsia X, bringing the airlines under one platform. In July, AirAsia X became AirAsia Group Berhad. The structure is now clean. AirAsia Group holds core aviation. Capital A holds the rest. The logic behind the separation was straightforward: bring the airlines under one platform, centralise fleet and network decisions, improve aircraft utilisation and remove… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-saudi-carriers-supplied-just-10-of-dammam-international/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-saudi-carriers-supplied-just-10-of-dammam-international/ Sun, 20 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath Saudi carriers supplied just 10% of Dammam’s international seat capacity in 2025. That is the gap the Kingdom’s newest airline is launching into. King Fahd International had ~17 million seats scheduled in 2025, almost evenly split between domestic and international. The four largest international operators at Dammam were Air India Express, Emirates, IndiGo and Qatar Airways. flynas, the largest operator at the… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-india-air-services-agreements-need-a-proactive-renewal/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-india-air-services-agreements-need-a-proactive-renewal/ Wed, 16 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Boardroom India's air services agreements need a proactive renewal cycle. When demand moves faster than bilateral policy, connectivity becomes the constraint. Last week, I had the chance to raise this at an Embassy of India in Riyadh event with Shri Kirti Vardhan Singh, Hon'ble Minister of State for External Affairs, Govt. of India, an issue I've been making the case for some time. Last year I published the analysis below. It… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-who-pays-how-much-when-india-airport-tariff/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-who-pays-how-much-when-india-airport-tariff/ Thu, 10 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Boardroom Three recent AERA decisions at Delhi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad point to three distinct shifts in tariff design: Incidence - who pays; segmentation - how much they pay; and timing - when recovery happens. 1. Incidence is broadening. Bengaluru and Hyderabad are bringing arriving passengers into the UDF base. But the principle is not new. Delhi previously levied UDF on arriving passengers until 2017, while AERA has… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-the-crack-spread-has-gone-from-a-quarter/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-the-crack-spread-has-gone-from-a-quarter/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Capital The crack spread has gone from a quarter of the jet fuel price to nearly half. Should airlines explore strategic exposure to refining capacity? Jet fuel is back above $170/bbl. At the 27-February base, the crack spread was roughly 28% of what airlines paid. It is now 42%. Crude is up 38% since then. The spread is up 160%. Both legs are rising again, Brent up 41% from its 3-July trough to $98.7/bbl; the crack up 88%… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-sharing-two-recent-flynas-announcements-that-are-personal/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-09-sharing-two-recent-flynas-announcements-that-are-personal/ Tue, 01 Sep 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Wisdom The first: 3 weekly Riyadh-Kochi flights from today (Sept 2). I built the business case for Kochi when I joined flynas in 2022, and kept pushing it after. It has taken longer than I would have liked, and flynas has lost some of the LCC first-mover advantage in the market in the meantime. But seeing it finally materialise is gratifying. This one mattered because of who uses it. The Kerala diaspora in the Kingdom is… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-08-who-pays-how-much-when-india-airport-tariff/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-08-who-pays-how-much-when-india-airport-tariff/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Boardroom Three recent AERA decisions at Delhi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad point to three distinct shifts in tariff design: Incidence - who pays; segmentation - how much they pay; and timing - when recovery happens. The first two are interesting. The third is potentially much more consequential. 1. Incidence is broadening. Bengaluru and Hyderabad are bringing arriving passengers into the UDF base. The principle is… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-07-ksa-fleet-airbus-production-capacity-is-now-a/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-07-ksa-fleet-airbus-production-capacity-is-now-a/ Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath KSA fleet | Airbus production capacity is now a potential national aviation capacity constraint for Saudi Arabia - that may be the most important takeaway from the Kingdom’s airline order book. Saudia, flyadeal, flynas and Riyadh Air currently operate about 270 aircraft. Against that sits an order pipeline of 582 aircraft, including options, more than 2x the current fleet. And 80% (467) of those aircraft are Airbus… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-07-why-aren-t-aviation-leaders-more-unsettled-by/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-07-why-aren-t-aviation-leaders-more-unsettled-by/ Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath Why aren't aviation leaders more unsettled by these numbers? And why aren't investors more selective about where their capital goes? McKinsey's latest aviation value chain analysis puts a number on how far this industry still is from solving its core economic problem. The aggregate economic loss deepened to $14.46B in 2024, worse than the ~$10B average annual loss recorded from 2012 to 2019. This happened despite… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-07-smalljoys/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-07-smalljoys/ Mon, 06 Jul 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Wisdom It's good to see a new service to Kochi after many years (discounting IX's inconsistent presence). It's a grossly underserved market and I pushed for this route as part of a network expansion strategy in a previous role; I'm hoping it materialises someday. As of 2025, around 42% of Riyadh-Kochi pax connected via a stop, often stretching total journey time to 8-15 hours. A new non-stop option is therefore a… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-07-ksa-fleet-the-numbers-point-somewhere-the-headlines/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-07-ksa-fleet-the-numbers-point-somewhere-the-headlines/ Thu, 02 Jul 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath Riyadh Air commands the attention, and rightly so. Every aircraft delivery and every route announcement attracts global coverage. It is arguably the most anticipated airline launch in a generation. But if you're only watching Riyadh Air, you're missing the carrier making the biggest capacity commitment in Saudi Arabia's aviation growth. flynas has 3.4 outstanding orders for every aircraft in its fleet today. That's… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-07-beyond-politics-a-flavour-of-india-economic-playbook/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-07-beyond-politics-a-flavour-of-india-economic-playbook/ Wed, 01 Jul 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Capital Beyond politics - A flavour of India's economic playbook during the Gulf Conflict. In posts since the war began, we discussed the need for state support for airlines, given their razor-thin margins and incapacity to absorb exogenous shocks. Govt of India's Chief Economic Advisor confirms that response was taken, acknowledging how the government chose to absorb the shock on the fuels that power the wider economy: "On… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-06-jet-fuel-prices-are-retreating-airspace-is-reopening/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-06-jet-fuel-prices-are-retreating-airspace-is-reopening/ Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Capital Jet fuel prices are retreating, airspace is reopening, and the Strait of Hormuz is (hopefully) returning to normal. The announcement of a US-Iran agreement and the expected normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may mark the beginning of the end of one of the most significant fuel shocks the aviation industry has faced. Over the past 16 weeks, jet fuel prices surged from $99/bbl to a peak of $209/bbl… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-06-this-chart-tells-the-central-story-of-airline/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-06-this-chart-tells-the-central-story-of-airline/ Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath This chart tells the central story of airline economics since 2015: an industry that generates real profit in dollar terms but consistently fails to cover its cost of capital. The structural message embedded across all twelve years is consistent: airline is a high-revenue, low-margin, capital-intensive business that is acutely sensitive to fuel price shocks it cannot hedge away entirely. Demand resilience is not in… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-06-how-a-strait-cracked-airline-finances/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-06-how-a-strait-cracked-airline-finances/ Wed, 10 Jun 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath In December 2025, the industry was heading into what looked like a record year. $41bn in profits. A 3.9% margin. Jet fuel at $88/bbl. Six months later, IATA's June 2026 outlook paints a very different picture: → Net profits: $23bn (-44%) → Net margin: 2.0% → Jet fuel: $152/bbl (+73%) → Fuel bill: +$98bn → Crack spread: $57/bbl (historic high) As discussed in earlier posts, value destruction is accelerating. The… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-05-update-10-weeks-of-war/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-05-update-10-weeks-of-war/ Thu, 07 May 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Capital Since my last post, the situation has moved on three fronts: Capacity continues to be destroyed at scale: 13,000 flights and 2 million seats cut in May alone. Cirium puts the June-September global seat reduction at 9.3 million. Qatar Airways has pulled 2 million seats from its summer schedule. Lufthansa has cut 20,000 short-haul flights. Governments are beginning to act: India's Union Cabinet approved ECLGS 5.0 - a… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-04-april-26-ksa-fleet-update-it-raining-planes/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-04-april-26-ksa-fleet-update-it-raining-planes/ Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath KSA's commercial fleet is set to triple, from ~260 aircraft today to over 850. With 593 aircraft on order, Saudi carriers are placing bets that will define the region's aviation landscape for the next two decades. Four carriers. Four different stories. >Saudia is essentially a renewal play. 126 outstanding orders against 148 in service. The 787s progressively retire the ageing A330s and older 777 classics, while… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-04-the-case-for-state-support/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-04-the-case-for-state-support/ Wed, 22 Apr 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Boardroom The case for state support. 3.9%. That was IATA’s forecast net margin for the global airline industry in 2026 - $41 billion on $1.05 trillion of revenue. That was before the war. Seven weeks later, the data is unforgiving: Brent +65% | Jet fuel +86% (peak ~+110%) | Crack spreads +140% IATA's base case assumed Brent at $62, jet fuel at $88, and a crack spread of $26/bbl. At peak, we hit $131, $209, and $86… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-04-i-wrote-this-piece-in-2016-during-my/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-04-i-wrote-this-piece-in-2016-during-my/ Wed, 08 Apr 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Capital I wrote this piece in 2016, during my time at Reuters, at the trough of the last oil cycle (ex-COVID). Just two years earlier, oil above $100 was eroding airline profitability and keeping returns below the cost of capital. By 2016, the narrative had flipped, sanctions on Iran were lifted by the Obama-led US administration, additional barrels flooded an oversupplied market, and prices slipped to historic lows. For… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-02-dipip-series-part-1-unlocking-airport-capacity-by/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-02-dipip-series-part-1-unlocking-airport-capacity-by/ Wed, 11 Feb 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath DIPIP Series | Part 1 - Unlocking Airport Capacity by Rethinking Domestic - International Segregation Airports around the world were designed around a simple assumption: Domestic and international passengers must be physically separated. That assumption made sense decades ago. Today, it is increasingly inefficient with significant CapEx and OpEx implications. IATA’s Domestic & International Passenger Integration… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-02-airlines-cannot-buy-growth-at-will-repost-with/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-02-airlines-cannot-buy-growth-at-will-repost-with/ Thu, 05 Feb 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath Aircraft Delivery Delays: Stalling Growth, Sustainability and Efficiency. The aircraft delivery challenge has evolved from a temporary disruption into a structural supply constraint that will shape aviation growth, fleet renewal, and decarbonization well into the early 2030s. Second order effects visible now >Capacity discipline is supporting yields, artificially >Network expansion delayed >Airline launches deferred… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-01-hart-smith-warning-and-boeing-full-circle-correction/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-01-hart-smith-warning-and-boeing-full-circle-correction/ Wed, 21 Jan 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Wisdom As aircraft OEMs continue to grapple with fragile supply chains, delivery delays, and eroded quality, it is worth revisiting a voice from the past: Dr. John Hart-Smith, one of Boeing’s most respected engineers. Over 20 years ago, he issued a bold warning: cost savings from outsourcing can be dangerously deceptive. In his (prophetic) 2001 paper, Hart-Smith argued that subcontracting isn’t inherently flawed, but when… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-01-airlines-cannot-buy-growth-at-will/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2026-01-airlines-cannot-buy-growth-at-will/ Wed, 14 Jan 2026 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath Aircraft Delivery Delays: Stalling Growth, Sustainability and Efficiency. The aircraft delivery challenge has evolved from a temporary disruption into a structural supply constraint that will shape aviation growth, fleet renewal, and decarbonization well into the early 2030s. Missed Opportunities for Growth In 2019, Airbus projected that 64% of new aircraft demand would support growth, with only 36% for replacement… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-12-the-kingdom-dual-hub-strategy-envisaged-under-nas/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-12-the-kingdom-dual-hub-strategy-envisaged-under-nas/ Thu, 11 Dec 2025 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath The Kingdom’s dual-hub strategy, envisaged under NAS is now becoming a reality as Riyadh Air inches closer to its "true" commercial launch. A look at Riyadh’s long-haul reality today, and the widebody deployment from a national carrier perspective, reveals where we are and what’s about to change. Under the National Aviation Strategy blueprint: 1. Saudia (SV) anchors JED as the base for medium and long-haul… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-12-capital-a-strategic-reset/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-12-capital-a-strategic-reset/ Wed, 03 Dec 2025 09:00:00 +0530 Boardroom Capital A’s Strategic Reset - Two focused verticals - A unified low-cost aviation group and A travel & digital group. At the core of the move is the transfer of all AirAsia airlines into an enlarged aviation group under AirAsia X (NewCo), consolidating 7 AOCs under one leadership, one fleet strategy, and one operating philosophy. Capital A retains an 18% stake, while freeing itself to grow its digital platforms as a… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-11-incredibly-grateful-for-the-opportunity-to-be-on/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-11-incredibly-grateful-for-the-opportunity-to-be-on/ Tue, 25 Nov 2025 09:00:00 +0530 Wisdom Incredibly grateful for the opportunity to be on stage at the Dubai Airshow last week, across two conversations that touched the core of how airports of tomorrow will move, connect, and scale. It was an honour to moderate a session on smart transport and passenger mobility within airports, and to share perspectives and best practices on capacity optimisation and demand balancing, including my views on IATA’s DIPIP… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-11-airasia-restructuring-is-in-it-final-lap-and/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-11-airasia-restructuring-is-in-it-final-lap-and/ Wed, 12 Nov 2025 09:00:00 +0530 Boardroom AirAsia’s restructuring is in it's final lap, and its Middle East push is gaining pace. It was a pleasure reconnecting with Tony Fernandes, a leader with a Midas touch and a bold vision to build the world’s first narrowbody low-cost network carrier, on the sidelines of the Tourise summit in Riyadh. >RUH-DMK AirAsia X ops commence on December 2 (once restructuring is completed, all seven airlines will sit under a… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-11-6e-forex-woes-highlighted-in-this-post-from/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-11-6e-forex-woes-highlighted-in-this-post-from/ Wed, 05 Nov 2025 09:00:00 +0530 Capital REPOST 🔁 6E's forex woes highlighted in this post from Feb. Relevant in light of Q2FY26 results 💵 Forex Woes in Indian Aviation – Is Enough Being Done to Hedge Risks? The Indian airline industry faces a silent profitability killer - foreign exchange losses. Even IndiGo, a well-run, operationally resilient airline with market leadership and a strategic focus, is taking a massive hit due to the rupee’s depreciation… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-10-oct-25-update-wizz-air-saudi-play/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-10-oct-25-update-wizz-air-saudi-play/ Tue, 28 Oct 2025 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath Oct-25 UPDATE - Wizz Air’s Saudi Play: A Bold Entry, A Hard Lesson, and a Second Chance In April, I wrote about how Wizz may have got its Saudi plot wrong. In July, the airline announced the cessation of its Abu Dhabi ops and closure of its JV with ADQ. Here’s a relook at its Saudi footprint, with key updates in the aftermath of the AUH exit and claims that certain routes could resume in Winter 2025. >One size… https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-10-decoding-riyadh-air-inaugural-network/ https://strategicbearing.in/writing/2025-10-decoding-riyadh-air-inaugural-network/ Wed, 22 Oct 2025 09:00:00 +0530 Flightpath Decoding Riyadh Air’s inaugural network - I’ve been tracking their first aircraft, Jamila, since she touched down in RUH on Jan 18, and I still try to spot her every morning on my drive to the airport. Since then, she has flown to 12 cities across Europe, South Asia, and the Middle East as part of a series of proving flights, training flights, showcase missions and readiness checks. Two of those stops, London and…